China experts working for the Rand Corporation have uncovered an amazing amount of public information appearing in Chinese military journals and textbooks about a potential war between the United States and Communist China. In one scenario, Taiwan makes moves to declare its independence, and while American authorities ponder their reaction, Chinese missliles attack US military bases in Japan and South Korea while long-range warheads destroy American satellites in order to cause disruption of communications. In this story, a passive America pulls back from action and seeks to resolve problems with China via negotiations. Roger Cliff, a former Defense Department strategist, told the Air Force Times, “these aren’t war plans. This is the military talking to itself. It’s not designed for foreigners or even China’s general public.”
According to experts like Cliff, China’s military is viewing any future conflict as being rather of short duration and concludes with both sides standing down from full-scale nuclear war. Chinese military leaders believe in a surprise attack to catch the enemy off guard and make them lean towards ending fighting. At the core of Chinese military plans is leaving the enemy “blind,” “deaf” and “paralyzed” due to destruction of communication.
One can asume American military leaders are also war gaming plans to hit China before they attack or what to do if caught off guard by a surprise attack. All military organizations plan and plot. The essential problem is their plans frequently are predicated on the assumption the enemy is rational. We have a president who acted irrational in launching an attack on Iraq without sufficient ground forces, with no plan as to what would happen if there was a victory and with limited knowledge of how the enemy thinks. Rational people must always plan on the assumptiont they will encounter irrational enemies.