Death continues its march across Syria and another day passes in which men, women, and children die. Or, should one day, are murdered. The International Red Cross now identifies fighting in this land as constituting a civil war. President Bashar al-Assad has tanks, planes, helicopters, artillery and thousands of soldiers, but in a civil war, this might not be enough. American forces learned in Iraq, and currently in Afghanistan, the weapons of war used by modern armies might not be effective in a civil war. Assad forces can blast a village, and the people can flee, but this simply means they have become members of a guerrilla army.
Assad is not going to win this civil war. It will last for one or two or three, but no more than four years. Thousands will die, hatred will accelerate, and when this civil war concludes there will be a massive exodus of people from Syria. Members of the Christian minority will flee for their lives while Alawites will prepare to fight their own civil war against whatever government comes to power.