Will Ahmadinejad Accept Defeat?

Iranians will go to the polls tomorrow to elect a president and most experts believe moderate candidate Hossein Mousavi has increased his lead and is close to obtaining anywhere from fifty percent to up to sixty percent of votes cast. Saeed Lalyaz, a respected political analyst says the evidence displays a surge toward Mousavi, but, “I worry about the impact of any announcement that Ahmadinejad wins in the first round… If Ahmadinejad is president for the second time I worry about another Tiananmen Square experience.” After three weeks of campaigning the powerful Revolutionary Guards have warned that any attemptat a popular “revolution” would be crushed. There are reports that even elements of the military are supporting Mousavi who has promised to extend freedom to the people of Iran.

If Mousavi gains a victory, he must move slowly to reach out to Western efforts of peace. Any immediate response to the Obama offer will anger conservatives. A moderate Iranian leader has to be shrewd and bring about change slowly in order to gain support of those who fear change in their nation.